The importance of stats in football betting


90% of the results in football fields around the world can be explained by the player performance and skills, as it is indicated by stats. The big question is how we can interpreter older performances of players and teams and how we can then convert them to odds that tell us what is possible to happen in the near future.

We are going to explain how we can understand previous performances and how these performances can be used in the selection of our daily football tips. In addition we will mention a couple of ways on how to calculate your own odds without the need of a computer, with just a sheet of paper and a pencil.

This way you can understand how to do things on your own, using your ways. The information we collect are used to make assumptions regarding the probability of an event to happen in more than 20 national leagues around Europe and the rest of the world, including England, Scotland, Germany, Spain, Italy and other countries from Turkey to Denmark and from Portugal to Ukraine.

We tend to compare our tips with actual results after the end of games on a daily basis, using statistic tests that indicate that more than 90% of the results can be explained before the start of the games.
We do not mention this in order to convince you that our football tips are amazing. In fact they aren’t. The only thing they offer is an estimation of how well a team can perform on a given day, based on its performance in previous games. We stress this in order to make you understand that the biggest impact on the result of a games comes from the performance of the players.

After inputing the data into our computer we calculate parameters like scores, the quality of the opposite team, the place and the date, which sounds rather expected to most people, because all the above factors have a great impact on the outcome of a match. The greater the performance of the team and the difference with the opposition, the more reliable the performance. A home win is of less importance compared to an away win, because almost all teams in the world perform much better in their home ground. The last match performance is of greater importance than the previous one etc.

Nevertheless, you should not focus on isolated performances or even in small good runs, getting away from the general image.

During Euro 2004 Italy and Spain were disqualified very early, from group stage. This does not mean that Italy was worse than Sweden or Denmark. Nor that Spain was worse than Greece of Portugal.

Football is a low scoring game where tha best team wins less times than in other sports like basketball of volleyball for example. In a mini-league with 3 teams participating, it is rather easy for the best team to finish even third, behind much worse opponents.


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