Over/Under betting model in football explained


In this article we will attempt to present you with a simple betting model which we have tried quite a lot. Our aim is not to give you a “sure” solution for winnings, but to offer you an example of exactly how we create a betting model and how we can then improve it.

If you like it just make sure you try it. Try it in as many matches as you can without betting real money first, to see how it works and what results it offers you. If you consider it successful, then try to find out where you could modify it in order to make it more effective.

Believe us, this is an excellent exercise in sports betting, that will make you understand the way of thinking and the operation of a betting model. So let’s go into the details:

The Over/Under betting model in football

As we mentioned in the title, we are talking about a betting model for betting on Over 2.5 and Under 2.5 goals. So here’s how it works.

We take into account the last 4 matches of each team (home and away), so that we basically have a sample of 8 football matches.

In case a match is over with Over 2.5 goals we give it a value of +0.5 points.

If both teams scored in the match, we give him an extra 0.75 points, even if the game finally ended with Under 2.5 goals.

If the game ended with under 2.5 goals then we give it -0.5 points.

Finally, if one of the teams did not score in the match then we give -0.75 points, even if the game ended with Over 2.5 goals.

Then we add all these points and the result is a positive or negative number. Here’s an example to see a little more practically how we perform these calculations:

Suppose we have the following results: 4-2, 2-1, 2-2, 0-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-1, 3-0

For the specific results that we noted immediately above we have:

0.5 + 0.75 + 0.5 + 0.75 + 0.5 + 0.75 – 0.5 – 0.75 – 0.5 – 0.75 + 0.5 + 0.75 + 0.5 + 0.75 + 0.5 – 0.75 = +3.5 points.

This particular result means that we bet 3.5/10 units on Over 2.5 goals. In the specific case of the model we present, the maximum results are -10 and +10. So basically we bet on Under if the number is negative (from 0.5/10 points to 10/10) and Over when the number is positive (from 0.5/10 points to 10/10 points).

You can, for example, not bet in all cases, but in those cases that appear to be more likely to be confirmed, e.g. +/-5 points. So for example we can bet 6/10 units on +6 result, on Over 2.5 goals of course.


What do you think of it as an idea? Note that this system is based on stats and tells you both how likely a result is and how much money to bet based on this information.

Don’t start using it right away by betting your money before you try it on paper and always be sure to play at the highest betting odds you can find in the market.


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