Investing in Value Bets

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Bookmakers define their own odds for every match that they feature in their daily list of games available to bet. That work is done in such a away that they are profitable in the long term and for that reason they maintain large groups of experts in statistics that are there to analyze odds levels for every single match in every single sport. Then, they define their odds, reducing the actual odds a bit, so that they can be profitable in every possible outcome of a game. That’s really the main reason why 95% of all gamblers that bet in sports do not achieve to make a profit in the long term. Nevertheless there are ways to profit and one of them are Value Bets, that we are going to describe below.

What are the odds?

Most of the times bookmakers are very precise about the odds they give, but that cannot happen 100% of the time, for such a large amount of sports and games. In a casino there’s a certain possibility according to mathematics, for example for 0 to end up on the European roulette, and that’s exactly 1 to 37. The same doesn’t apply for sports bets since there are no standard odds. So let’s assume there is a new football player is making his first appearance in a match and he is given 20/1 odds for scoring, but you know well that player from his previous career and believe that these odds are not realistic and that he has much better chances to score, which you expect to be about 5/1. Such a discovery of this type of bets, that are called Value Bets, is quite common, if you are familiar with a certain sport and closely watch the news of a team or a player. Therefore if you are in a position to find such bets on your own or by using an odds website or any other tool, you can be profitable over time.
Unfortunately this whole process requires time and excellent knowledge of a sport. A good start is to find a sport and a league (eg. Premier League football) that we know a lot about and concentrate out attention there. You can follow a player or a team on a daily basis and when you find such a deal of that kind, you can we proceed into placing a good bet.

A real example

A splendid example of a Value Bet happened during 2002/03 season when William Hill offered 200/1 odds for Primoz Petreka’s win in a world tournament of skiing, that is a niche sport. Petraka was not a favourite to win but those who know realized that he was a good athlete and that after semifinals was in tremendous form. Therefore those who bet even small amount on his win won 200 times their bets, since Petraka finally came first. Odds at 200/1, not bad at all!
In order to find the information required, a lot of work has to be made, and the less popular a sport is, the more chances there are for Value Bets. Some players really send a lot of time reading newspapers and newsportals online for information, as well as participate in fan forums. In addition, many show interest in weather conditions and other factors, since they too can have an impact on a game. Those that are good at maths and statistics analyze matches and player stats in various ways in order to find real odds and forecast future results. Last but not least, those who do not wish to spend much time and effort, they can find an odds website with a simple Google search and get value bets ready without much trouble.

Don’t bet logically

Those players that deal with Value Bets do not necessarily bet on a team they think is going to win. If you analyze a match and you see for example that Everton has a 25% chance to beat Manchester United and bookmakers only give 10% chances, then the Value Bet is to ben on Everton’s win, even if the chances are slim. In such cases, if your odds are more precise than those defined by the bookmakers, you will end up a winner in the long run. This happens because in a theoretical situation where the two teams played 100 games with the same odds, Everton would win 25 matches and not just 10 as the bookies expected and you will profit from that difference.

 

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